IR · per-country backtest
Iran forecast vs reality
Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Iran, plotted against what actually happened. 35 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.
Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →
Forecasts evaluated
35
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
74.3%
26/35 correct
Brier score
0.688
lower is better
Observed positive rate
83%
mean predicted 10%
Forecast time series
Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.
Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)
All 35 predictions (newest first)
| Eval date | Forecast | Pred ≥ 0.5? | Observed? | Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21 | 87.0% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| May 20 | 11.4% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| May 19 | 12.2% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| May 18 | 11.4% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| May 17 | 10.6% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| May 16 | 8.7% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| May 15 | 7.1% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| May 14 | 6.1% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| May 13 | 6.1% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| May 12 | 8.4% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| May 11 | 7.1% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| May 10 | 7.2% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| May 9 | 6.4% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| May 8 | 6.7% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| May 7 | 4.8% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| May 6 | 7.3% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| May 5 | 9.4% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| May 4 | 9.5% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| May 3 | 5.8% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| May 2 | 8.6% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| May 1 | 8.6% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Apr 30 | 9.1% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Apr 29 | 9.6% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Apr 28 | 9.5% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Apr 27 | 7.9% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Apr 26 | 8.9% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Apr 25 | 7.6% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Apr 24 | 5.1% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Apr 23 | 7.9% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Apr 22 | 6.7% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Apr 21 | 6.4% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Apr 20 | 6.1% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
| Apr 19 | 4.9% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Apr 18 | 4.0% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Apr 17 | 6.1% | ↑ | shutdown | ✓ |
How to read this
- Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
- Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
- Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
- Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.
Related
- /atlas/forecast/ir — current 7-day calibrated forecast for Iran with SHAP drivers
- /ir — Iran country page (current state, recent incidents)
- /sentinel/backtest — global reliability diagram + per-country comparison table
- Calibration refit writeup