voidly
ID · per-country backtest

Indonesia forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Indonesia, plotted against what actually happened. 73 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

Forecasts evaluated
73
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
52.1%
38/73 correct
Brier score
0.246
lower is better
Observed positive rate
26%
mean predicted 5%

Forecast time series

Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.

0.000.250.500.751.00threshold 0.50Apr 17Jun 28

Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)

All 73 predictions (newest first)

Eval dateForecastPred ≥ 0.5?Observed?Correct?
Jun 281.3%—no event✓
Jun 271.4%—no event✓
Jun 261.2%—no event✓
Jun 251.1%—no event✓
Jun 240.8%—no event✓
Jun 230.9%—no event✓
Jun 220.7%—no event✓
Jun 214.7%—no event✓
Jun 203.9%—no event✓
Jun 194.5%—no event✓
Jun 186.0%↑no event✗
Jun 173.6%—no event✓
Jun 166.1%↑no event✗
Jun 154.8%—no event✓
Jun 144.4%—no event✓
Jun 134.5%—no event✓
Jun 125.2%↑no event✗
Jun 115.8%↑no event✗
Jun 104.9%—no event✓
Jun 957.9%↑no event✗
Jun 84.5%—no event✓
Jun 75.6%↑no event✗
Jun 62.8%—no event✓
Jun 53.8%—no event✓
Jun 44.9%—no event✓
Jun 33.6%—no event✓
Jun 25.7%↑no event✗
Jun 14.3%—no event✓
May 315.6%↑no event✗
May 304.2%—no event✓
May 294.3%—no event✓
May 284.5%—no event✓
May 273.7%—no event✓
May 265.1%↑no event✗
May 254.1%—no event✓
May 244.6%—no event✓
May 235.5%↑no event✗
May 224.7%—no event✓
May 216.7%↑no event✗
May 207.2%↑no event✗
May 197.3%↑no event✗
May 187.1%↑no event✗
May 174.4%—no event✓
May 165.3%↑no event✗
May 155.1%↑no event✗
May 144.9%—no event✓
May 133.4%—no event✓
May 125.0%↑no event✗
May 114.8%—no event✓
May 104.6%—no event✓
May 94.9%—no event✓
May 83.9%—no event✓
May 72.3%—no event✓
May 64.0%—no event✓
May 54.8%—shutdown✗
May 43.4%—shutdown✗
May 33.1%—shutdown✗
May 24.2%—shutdown✗
May 14.0%—shutdown✗
Apr 304.3%—shutdown✗

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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