voidly
EG · per-country backtest

Egypt forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Egypt, plotted against what actually happened. 73 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

Forecasts evaluated
73
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
52.1%
38/73 correct
Brier score
0.528
lower is better
Observed positive rate
79%
mean predicted 30%

Forecast time series

Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.

0.000.250.500.751.00threshold 0.50Apr 17Jun 28

Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)

All 73 predictions (newest first)

Eval dateForecastPred ≥ 0.5?Observed?Correct?
Jun 2874.0%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2775.0%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2677.8%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2568.4%↑no event✗
Jun 2473.6%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2369.2%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2273.9%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2144.4%—shutdown✗
Jun 2043.9%—no event✓
Jun 1943.2%—no event✓
Jun 1844.8%—no event✓
Jun 1745.0%↑no event✗
Jun 1643.4%↑no event✗
Jun 1543.7%↑shutdown✓
Jun 1445.2%↑shutdown✓
Jun 1345.4%↑shutdown✓
Jun 1244.6%↑shutdown✓
Jun 1144.3%↑shutdown✓
Jun 1045.0%↑shutdown✓
Jun 944.3%↑shutdown✓
Jun 844.0%↑shutdown✓
Jun 744.4%↑shutdown✓
Jun 642.9%↑shutdown✓
Jun 545.1%↑shutdown✓
Jun 445.0%↑shutdown✓
Jun 344.6%↑shutdown✓
Jun 244.6%↑no event✗
Jun 143.9%↑no event✗
May 3145.0%↑shutdown✓
May 3043.9%↑shutdown✓
May 2943.4%↑shutdown✓
May 2843.7%↑shutdown✓
May 2744.3%↑shutdown✓
May 2644.8%↑shutdown✓
May 2544.9%↑shutdown✓
May 2448.4%↑no event✗
May 2348.0%↑no event✗
May 2246.4%↑no event✗
May 2181.7%↑no event✗
May 2033.0%↑no event✗
May 1932.1%↑no event✗
May 1832.7%↑no event✗
May 175.5%↑shutdown✓
May 165.2%↑shutdown✓
May 157.3%↑shutdown✓
May 147.2%↑shutdown✓
May 137.5%↑shutdown✓
May 127.4%↑shutdown✓
May 118.4%↑shutdown✓
May 104.8%—shutdown✗
May 95.2%↑shutdown✓
May 83.8%—shutdown✗
May 73.2%—shutdown✗
May 65.9%↑shutdown✓
May 54.9%—shutdown✗
May 44.8%—shutdown✗
May 33.3%—shutdown✗
May 23.5%—shutdown✗
May 13.9%—shutdown✗
Apr 303.1%—shutdown✗

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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