voidly
CU · per-country backtest

Cuba forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Cuba, plotted against what actually happened. 73 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

Forecasts evaluated
73
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
58.9%
43/73 correct
Brier score
0.221
lower is better
Observed positive rate
22%
mean predicted 12%

Forecast time series

Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.

0.000.250.500.751.00threshold 0.50Apr 17Jun 28

Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)

All 73 predictions (newest first)

Eval dateForecastPred ≥ 0.5?Observed?Correct?
Jun 2864.2%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2764.2%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2664.2%↑no event✗
Jun 2564.2%↑no event✗
Jun 2464.1%↑no event✗
Jun 2364.1%↑no event✗
Jun 2261.8%↑no event✗
Jun 215.3%↑no event✗
Jun 204.6%—no event✓
Jun 195.4%↑no event✗
Jun 185.2%↑no event✗
Jun 174.9%—no event✓
Jun 166.7%—no event✓
Jun 153.4%—no event✓
Jun 144.1%—no event✓
Jun 134.4%—no event✓
Jun 125.1%—no event✓
Jun 115.2%—no event✓
Jun 103.8%—no event✓
Jun 96.3%—no event✓
Jun 85.4%—no event✓
Jun 73.4%—no event✓
Jun 65.3%—no event✓
Jun 55.0%—no event✓
Jun 43.3%—no event✓
Jun 34.1%—no event✓
Jun 23.5%—no event✓
Jun 13.5%—shutdown✗
May 312.7%—shutdown✗
May 304.9%—shutdown✗
May 294.9%—shutdown✗
May 284.5%—shutdown✗
May 274.1%—shutdown✗
May 263.3%—shutdown✗
May 254.2%—no event✓
May 2459.4%↑no event✗
May 2360.8%↑no event✗
May 2215.9%↑no event✗
May 216.2%↑no event✗
May 204.5%—no event✓
May 195.0%↑no event✗
May 187.3%↑no event✗
May 174.4%—no event✓
May 164.4%—no event✓
May 154.4%—no event✓
May 143.2%—no event✓
May 135.2%↑no event✗
May 123.5%—no event✓
May 112.8%—no event✓
May 103.3%—no event✓
May 94.3%—no event✓
May 84.0%—no event✓
May 74.1%—no event✓
May 63.8%—no event✓
May 54.8%—no event✓
May 44.1%—no event✓
May 33.4%—shutdown✗
May 24.2%—shutdown✗
May 11.9%—shutdown✗
Apr 302.9%—shutdown✗

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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