voidly
AR · per-country backtest

AR forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for AR, plotted against what actually happened. 0 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

No outcome data yet for AR. The sentinel_outcomes pipeline resolves forecasts after a 7-day window, so countries that just entered the watched set won't have evaluable pairs until the window closes. See /sentinel/backtest for the global view.

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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