With the 2026 Iranian Presidential Election scheduled for early June, our forecast model places peak shutdown risk at 52% on day +7 from today (May 20). SHAP feature attribution names the upcoming election as the dominant signal, consistent with the 2009 + 2013 + 2017 + 2021 cycles, where Iranian authorities blocked or throttled internet access in the lead-up to and during voting.
Iran sits at 11.4% current-day risk and ranks #3 globally on the Voidly Censorship Index (score 40, "high"). The ISP-level breakdown shows elevated blocking activity on AS204213, AS61173, and AS206065 — the three largest civilian ISPs.
We'll update this finding as the election date approaches. Subscribe to the Atom feed if you need real-time alerts when the threshold crosses 0.5.