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Causal attribution for shutdowns: synthetic DiD applied to internet censorship
When a shutdown happens, we can now answer "what caused it?" with a defensible counterfactual. /v1/sentinel/attribute builds a synthetic control from weighted stable-democracy donors, measures the post-period gap, runs a permutation p-value, and surfaces nearby political events. Method:…
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When a shutdown happens, we can now answer "what caused it?" with a defensible counterfactual. /v1/sentinel/attribute builds a synthetic control from weighted stable-democracy donors, measures the post-period gap, runs a permutation p-value, and surfaces nearby political events. Method: Arkhangelsky et al. (arXiv:1812.09970), adapted from Internet Society NetLoss (ACM JCSS 2024).
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