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Classifier v3.3: regime-similarity contagion. Better on aggregate, MENA trade-off.
v3.2 weighted neighbors by geography (UN subregion) and the results were mixed. v3.3 weights neighbors by historical anomaly_rate correlation — and wins clearly on aggregate. Stratified F1 0.673 → 0.729 (+8%), LOCO median F1 0.818 → 0.870 (+5%), EG recovered 0.548 → 0.726 (+18pp), Western European…
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v3.2 weighted neighbors by geography (UN subregion) and the results were mixed. v3.3 weights neighbors by historical anomaly_rate correlation — and wins clearly on aggregate. Stratified F1 0.673 → 0.729 (+8%), LOCO median F1 0.818 → 0.870 (+5%), EG recovered 0.548 → 0.726 (+18pp), Western European democracies back to F1 ~1.0. But 16 countries regress >5pp vs v3.1, mostly MENA + former Soviet states whose neighbor correlations fall below the overlap threshold and drop to 0. Promoted with honest caveats.
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