United Arab Emirates (AE) 2026-04-28
P(censorship) = 36.82%2/4 sources corroborating
Prior 3.47% · log-odds -0.540 · calibrated against 183 confirmed incidents
Per-source breakdown
| Source | Present? | Anomalous rows | Likelihood ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| CensoredPlanet | YES | 12 | 5.285 |
| IODA | no | 0 | 1.752 |
| OONI | YES | 1 | 1.762 |
| Voidly probes | no | 0 | 0.992 |
Likelihood ratio > 1 ⇒ this observation pushes the posterior up. < 1 ⇒ pushes it down. The fused posterior multiplies all four LRs against the prior and renormalizes.
Honest caveats
- LEAKAGE AUDIT (2026-05-22): the reported AUC ~0.92 is real arithmetic but near-tautological. The label is_censorship is derived from the incidents table; 343 of 344 censorship/mixed incidents were minted from an anomalous evidence row on the same country-day the feature counts. The feature partially ENCODES the label.
- censoredplanet_present alone (one raw binary feature, no model) scores AUC ~0.90 on the temporal test set. The 4-source Naive Bayes adds only ~1.6pp (bootstrap 95% CI [0.0, 3.3pp]) — the 'multi-source fusion' contributes essentially nothing.
United Arab Emirates country page
Live block rate, ISPs, ranked domains
Raw API response
JSON with full likelihood breakdown